First numbers from Indiana

By Jennifer J. Foster

Published: May 6, 2008

First numbers from Indiana show Clinton leading Obama 66 to 34 percent, although it’s only about 3,600 votes.

Why is U.S. Sen. Claire McCaskill undermining exit polls and “all the underlying data?“ I think exit polls so far show good news for Obama: He’s splitting moderates evenly with Clinton in both states; he’s even with her among Democrats who say they have been affected by the downturn in the economy; and—this is the most interesting thing—more of his voters indicate a willingness to support Clinton if she is the nominee than her supporters indicate a willingness to support him if he is the nominee (more on that later!), thus lending credence to his argument that she more closely reflects McCain-type values.

The split is now 64-36 with 3,500 votes in. Polls are still open in Western Indiana, which includes the Chicago suburbs and the Evansville area. Both are expected to be Obama strongholds, so the numbers will kick up for him in about 45 minutes. Until then, one place that offers us a good indicator of Clinton’s strength will be her returns from South Bend, as CNN’s John King noted earlier on the Magic Wall. Home to Notre Dame, South Bend is home to plenty of Catholic voters, and Clinton waxed Obama among that demographic in Pennsylvania. If she can run up big numbers there and in other conservative parts of the state, it will likely seal her win.