Five minutes to water cooler domination

By Jennifer J. Foster

Published: May 13, 2008

I just wrote a long post about Paul Begala and Howard Wolfson’s appearances on CNN tonight, but I lost it somehow, so I’ll give you the highlights:

Clinton Communications Director Howard Wolfson argued again the position held by the Clinton campaign, which is that Michigan and Florida delegates must be counted the way voters in those states intended when they came out for their primaries. Those primaries, of course, were in violation of the DNC-approved calendar, and all Democratic candidates (with the exception of Mike Gravel, who showed up in a strange YouTube video last week) agreed to abide by the DNC’s decision to punish those states by stripping them of their delegates and not to campaign in those states.

Now, Wolfson said, Clinton and her campaign will not accept any solution that does not address the Michigan-Florida situation: In other words, Clinton’s estimation of the delegates needed to close the nomination deal is 2,209, which is the 2,025 counted by the DNC plus those from Michigan and Florida.

Of course, a higher delegate number means Clinton has more opportunity to catch Barack Obama, but that’s apparently beside the point. Wolfson insisted that “every vote” must count.

CNN host Anderson Cooper asked Wolfson when the Clinton campaign came to this realization, noting that Clinton said last fall that she didn’t expect the Michigan contest “to count for anything.“ In addition, Clinton was in a position to exercise tremendous influence on the DNC rules committee’s decision to strip those states of their delegates, since 12 of the panel’s 30 members were her supporters; she did nothing.

Wolfson explained that Clinton didn’t expect the turnout in those states to be what it was. They had “every expectation” that turnout would be low—maybe 50,000 to 75,000 people, he said. But 2.3 million showed up.

Apparently, according to Howard Wolfson, the votes of only 50,000 to 75,000 people aren’t worth fighting for, but the votes of 2.3 million people are. So much for counting every vote!

(Incidentally, Slate.com has a terrific article with the background of how Hillary Clinton’s position on Michigan and Florida evolved. Do yourself a favor and take five minutes and read the story, titled “Fair-Weather Wolverine,“ written by Florida political writer S.V. Date. Water cooler domination, coming right up.)

Donna Brazile, a DNC superdelegate and former Bill Clinton adviser, said she had enormous respect for Howard Wolfson and his argument and all the respect in the world for Hillary Clinton, but she has more respect for the intergrity of the process and the rules of the Democratic Party. In other words, Brazile said, pound sand, Howard Wolfson; 48 other states managed to follow the DNC rules, and Michigan and Florida were out of line to step out of line. Brazile put the onus back on the candidates to “use their diplomatic skills” to work out a solution between themselves and avoid putting the rules committee in an intermediary position.

Begala was next. He didn’t appear with Brazile, which was a huge disappointment after last week’s dramatic dustup. He went on to repeat the mantra that this long process is SO GOOD! for the Democrats: “I don’t thnk it hurt Obama at all that he’s getting thumped 2 to 1 in West Virginia,“ Begala said, noting that Clinton “won by boosting herself up” instead of tearing Obama down. Begala cited a new Rasmussen poll (I looked but couldn’t find it) that has Obama virtually tied with John McCain in West Virginia. “John Kerry lost West Virginia by 13,“ Begala said. “So if, on the day he’s losing the primary 2 to 1, he’s still tied with McCain, this primary is not hurting him in this state.“

But doesn’t that “argue against Clinton’s point” that she is the “candidate who can best beat McCain? Cooper asked.

CNN pays his bills, not Clinton, Begala said, adding, “I’m not a flak for her.“

I laughed out loud.

For her part, Clinton struck a markedly more conciliatory tone where Obama was concerned in her victory speech from Charleston, W.V., but she left no ambiguity: She is “more determined than ever,“ she said, to stay in the race until the end of the primary season ... which ends with the Montana and South Dakota contests on June 3.

All in all, it was a weird night; Wolfson checking in from Never-Never Land and Begala coming to Obama’s defense.

Leave it to Gloria Borger to lend clarity to the confusion: Although Clinton is moving the goalposts, changing the rules and changing the numbers in an effort to retain her campaign’s viability, “He can’t knock her out, and she can’t catch him,“ Borger said.

... And so, it’s on to Kentucky and Oregon next week.