Let’s Make a Deal—Russian Edition
By Jennifer J. Foster
Published: March 3, 2009
Well, after weeks of waiting and trying to read the mixed signals from the Obama Administration, it looks like we finally have some definite news on the new president’s plans for the missile defense program.
Here on this blog, we have frequently discussed this issue, how the United States’s commitment to the missile defense shield in Eastern Europe is not only critical for our allies—we have pledged it to them as part of protection agreements—but absolutely essential to the safety of our military men and women who are stationed and deployed in Eastern Europe and throughout the Middle East.
As much as Russia hated the program while the Bush Administration pursued it, at least there was no question as to American commitment to it.
Enter the Obama Administration.
Almost before Election Night had fully passed in the West, Obama aides were scrambling to maintain the squishiness of Obama’s position on missile defense. Russia sensed weakness from the new president and his team and escalated the rhetoric.
I guess it was just a matter of time until the Placater-in-Chief did what he does best in foreign policy.
From the Russian news agency RA Novosti:
Washington has told Moscow that Russian help in resolving Iran’s nuclear program would make its missile shield plans for Europe unnecessary, a Russian daily said on Monday, citing White House sources.
U.S. President Barack Obama made the proposal on Iran in a letter to his Russian counterpart, Dmitry Medvedev, Kommersant said, referring to unidentified U.S. officials.
The New York Times was more blunt:
President Obama sent a secret letter to Russia’s president last month suggesting that he would back off deploying a new missile defense system in Eastern Europe if Moscow would help stop Iran from developing long-range weapons, American officials said Monday.
The letter to President Dmitri A. Medvedev was hand-delivered in Moscow by top administration officials three weeks ago. It said the United States would not need to proceed with the interceptor system, which has been vehemently opposed by Russia since it was proposed by the Bush administration, if Iran halted any efforts to build nuclear warheads and ballistic missiles.
Dear Dmitry,
I know you’ve got your dander up about this whole pesky missile-defense thing. But I really want to be friends. I know we can work this out. Tell you what: You and I both know that that Ahmadinejad dude is a crazy loon. You get him to stop pursuing his plans to get a nuke with which he can wipe Israel off the planet, and I’ll forget all about the missile-defense project.
Because we both know, Dmitry, that Iran is the only place in the Middle East from which missile-borne threats to American allies and interests can come.
Your friend,
Barack
P.S. I forgot to mention, I don’t even mind if you keep selling Iran your missiles. (Congratulations on the booming business, by the way! And here people think there are no bright spots in the worldwide recession! Sheesh!) Just steer them away from the stuff with these labels.
OK, so the letter probably didn’t read quite like that. But it’s probably close.
More on Obama’s real letter, from FoxNews.com:
A senior administration official told FOX News that Obama sent a letter to Medvedev but “we won’t comment on the specifics.“
Of course not! Because they have to protect that wiggle room, don’t ya know.
Obama inherited plans to build the system in Poland and the Czech Republic from the Bush administration, but the new administration has equivocated over the project.
The new administration “has equivocated”? They’ve been doing a full-out Hokey Pokey. (According to The New York Times, even the deal was an equivocation: “The officials who described the contents of the message requested anonymity because it has not been made public. While they said it did not offer a direct quid pro quo, the letter was intended to give Moscow an incentive to join the United States in a common front against Iran.“)
Though the plans were put in place to deter nations like Iran and North Korea from launching attacks and developing nuclear weapons, Russia has interpreted the planned installation as a threat.
Because, you know, you always offer to show the blueprints of the technology to the people you want to use the technology against.
The senior administration official said the U.S. will continue to “consult with the Czech Republic and Poland on the program,“ but will also continue to review the plan.
So, after equivocating on this issue for weeks, Obama has simultaneously made a move while equivocating. Now, you have to admit—that takes talent.
“We’ll be evaluating the future of the program based on a number of factors ... whether it will work, whether it will be cost-effective, whether it will reduce the threat and whether that threat can be reduced though diplomacy with Russia and our NATO allies,“ the official said.
So many things here:
The guy who ran the military’s missile-defense research program already cleared up for them the whole is-it-going-to-work question. He seemed annoyed at the time that Obama’s folks weren’t any more informed about the progress of the technology since ... 2000.
Cost-effective? What do American lives and the protection of American allies and assets have to be worth for the system to be “cost-effective”?
Ah, diplomatic efforts to reduce the threat ... let’s check in with our Secretary of State on that, shall we?
U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton expressed doubt Monday that Iran would respond to the Obama administration’s diplomatic initiatives toward Tehran on nuclear and other issues, a senior State Department official said.
Clinton made the statement in a private meeting with the foreign minister of the United Arab Emirates, Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan, who had expressed to Clinton a concern among Persian Gulf nations that Obama might make a deal with Iran without full consultation with U.S. allies.
... Clinton told her counterpart that the Obama administration is carefully calculating its moves and will consult fully with Gulf allies.
“We’re under no illusions,“ the official quoted Clinton as telling al Nahyan. “Our eyes are wide open on Iran.“
So ... that’s not looking so good.
But at least we have Russia. I’m sure the country that longs to replace the U.S. as the world’s last superpower will jump at the chance to undercut a powerful arms trading partner to protect the U.S.‘s standing as the world’s last superpower.
Yeah. No illusions at all.
By the way, there’s equivocation even among Obama’s own team about where Iran is on development of a nuclear weapon. Admiral Mike Mullen, chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, said in a televised interview Sunday that Tehran had got enough fissile material to build such a weapon:
“We think they do, quite frankly,“ Mullen told the CNN when asked if Iran had obtained enough nuclear material to produce an atomic bomb.
“And Iran having a nuclear weapon, I’ve believed for a long time, is a very, very bad outcome for the region and for the world,“ the top U.S. military commander said.
But Defense Secretary Robert Gates says, don’t worry; be happy:
But Gates said on NBC’s “Meet the Press” that the Iranians are not close to getting a weapon at this time.
“They’re not close to a stockpile, they’re not close to a weapon at this point and so there is some time,“ he said when asked whether Tehran could be deterred from pursuing its weapons effort.
Gates said the U.S. will continue to pursue sanctions on Iran while also howing an opportunity to engage with Europe as a means to “walk away from that program.“
“Our chances of being successful, it seems to me, are a lot better at $35 or $40 oil than they were at $140 oil because there are economic costs to this program, they do have economic challenges at home,“ Gates said.
“Walk away from that program.“ Are we talking about Iran and the nukes, or are we talking about America and the missile shield?
Let me see if I follow this argument: We think Iran has enough fissile material to make the bomb, but they haven’t put it all together yet, so we should just chill out about it because oil is at $35 a barrel.
Is it just me, or is that stretching the limits of absurdity?
See also:
What’s good for the goose ..., blog post from 2/17/09. Russia wants its own missile shield. (No, really; they do.)
It’s official, blog post from 12/1/08. Meet the Placater-in-Chief.
Crisis in Georgia, blog post from 8/13/08. During the Russian incursion into Georgia, the Georgian president explained to the West what’s at stake in Eastern Europe and why it should matter to America. A riveting interview.
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