McCain’s suspension: Brilliant or a blunder?

By Jennifer J. Foster

Published: September 25, 2008

When I first heard yesterday that John McCain was suspending his presidential campaign to head back to Washington to “deal” with the economy, I thought it was a solid political calculation on his part.

SIDEBAR And yes, of course it was a calculated move; we’re something like 40 days from Election Day. Don’t think that anything that happens from here on out isn’t carefully calculated—and maybe even a little bit focus-group tested. END SIDEBAR

Anyway, I thought it was a pretty good move, since it would force Barack Obama to respond to McCain’s agenda. Either Obama would also suspend, or he wouldn’t; either he would go to Washington, or he wouldn’t; and he would agree to postpone the debate, or he wouldn’t.

If he did any of these things, the McCain campaign would be able to say down the road (you know, when it decides to campaign again and when it decides that partisanship is OK again) that Obama followed McCain’s lead on the economy, McCain is the real leader, McCain has all the experience, yak yak yak.

Well, if Barack Obama knows anything, it’s hard-ball politics (remember, he is from Chicago). He’s no dummy. He knows that whatever the risk of being painted as out of touch on the economy or unwilling to set partisanship aside or being concerned with campaigning more than responding to the financial crisis, the greater political risk is to be seen as following John McCain.

So he didn’t suspend, he didn’t go to Washington and he didn’t agree to postpone the debate.

Barely 18 hours since McCain made his announcement, Obama is looking like he has the upper hand in this. McCain’s move to suspend the campaign is being widely panned, by everyone from pundits to late-night comics.

If McCain’s move has taught politicos anything, it’s this: For future reference, it’s never a good idea to suspend your campaign on the day that you’re supposed to appear on a late-night talk show.

McCain was supposed to appear on the “Late Show with David Letterman” yesterday, but he cancelled due to the suspension. That gave Letterman the opportunity to absolutely rip the decision (although he did spend several minutes ahead of doing that lauding McCain’s POW experience and his status as a “real American hero”). Letterman managed to call Keith Olbermann to fill in (yes, I changed the channel). But I didn’t find out until an hour later, during “The Late Late Show with Craig Ferguson” (my new favorite late-night show, by the way), that Olbermann actually cancelled on Ferguson to do “Letterman.“ That gave Ferguson the opportunity to spend several minutes ripping the bailout plan itself (his monologue is now available on his web site (Sept. 24 monologue); I couldn’t get it, but I hope you can, because it’s terrific) and McCain’s decision to suspend his campaign.

Ferguson also dropped in this little nugget: McCain cancelled on “Letterman” ostensibly due to the suspension, but he had time to stop by “for a game of softball with Katie Couric” before he left town.

Ouch.

Remember that Ferguson is a recently naturalized American citizen. I have come to love his perspective on politics and current events. This is a man who had to earn his citizenship, and that is reflected in his commentary. Never has it been more apparent than in last night’s show.

Anyway, in much the same way that he pinned his candidacy to the successful execution of the surge strategy in Iraq last year, McCain will now sink or swim based on what happens in Washington this week. By suspending his campaign and throwing all his efforts into the debate going on on Capitol Hill, McCain has made himself the face of the bailout plan. This is risky on any number of fronts:

If the bailout succeeds and McCain is an integral part of hammering it together, he will alienate a good many conservatives who believe that the government has no business bailing out Wall Street and their irresponsible fellow citizens. And no VP pick will be able to patch up that divide.

If the bailout succeeds and McCain’s involvement is marginalized (or even perceived to be marginalized, as in it looks like he didn’t have much do to with it, even if he did), McCain will appear powerless—or worse, irrelevant. That’s a giant iceberg in the path of the Good Ship McCain, especially since he’s running on all that experience he has in “reaching across the aisle” to get things done, etc.

If the bailout founders, as it’s increasingly looking like it may, the suspension will be an utter disaster for McCain. He will have given up several days in battleground states during a crucial time in the race—not to mention the debate stage, if the debate is not rescheduled—for naught.

So the only hope for McCain is that he is able to be a huge part of a very successful plan that somehow manages to save Wall Street while assuaging the outright anger of conservatives without whose help he cannot win in November.

It’s a big gamble, and the odds are against him. But McCain has beaten long odds before—more than a few times just in the last year. So whether McCain’s decision is brilliant or a blunder, it’s too early to tell.

But the clock is ticking. 

Posted by Jennifer J. Foster on 09/25 at 06:33 AM (1) Comments | Permalink