2008 Previews: Alabama/Auburn
To celebrate my first column of the year, we’re giving you a special double dose of the teams you’ve really been waiting for at Nos. 50 & 51. It’s the Alabama Crimson Tide and the Auburn Tigers. Previews of all 65 BCS conference schools, plus Notre Dame and state schools, will be posted daily in no particular order. To view all previews, click here
We’ll start with the Crimson Tide.
All summer long I’ve been ready to say Alabama would have a pretty good season.
Despite all the losses, and despite the fact that they’re still having to rely on so many unreliable Shula players, I really felt like they might have an outside chance to contending in the West.
Jimmy Johns’ arrest changed all that.
Now I know one player isn’t that big of a deal, but losing yet another player with some experience and having yet another disciplinary problem made me realize Nick Saban still has to blow up a lot of what he inherited.
That’s not to say there’s not potential.
Quarterback John Parker Wilson has shown flashes of brilliance (Arkansas, Tennessee) amidst occasional horror shows (Florida State, Mississippi State) in his career, and is now under his third offensive coordinator since arriving at the Capstone. I think he’ll actually have a pretty good season, but a lot of that depends on other factors.
He has plenty of strong options at running back in Terry Grant, Glenn Coffee and Roy Upchurch, and the offensive line must replace only one starter.
But who will Wilson throw the ball to?
DJ Hall, Matt Caddell and Keith Brown, the team’s three leading receivers last season, are gone. He does still have Mike McCoy, who caught 28 passes, and tight end Nick Walker, who caught 23, but that’s about it.
They’ll need freshmen like Julio Jones or other previously-unproven players to step up, or the Tide could become one-dimensional pretty fast.
But the offense looks like a well-oiled machine compared to the defense.
The linebacking corps could potentially be terrible now that Ezekial Knight and Johns won’t be playing, and only middle linebacker Rolando McClain has significant experience.
And it doesn’t get much better up front. Gone is defensive end Wallace Gilberry, the team’s second-leading tackler who also recorded 10 sacks. They do have Lorenzo Washington back at nose tackle, who was productive last year. Brandon Deaderick also returns at end.
Things don’t look any better in the secondary, either. They do have outstanding safety Rashad Johnson back, along with Kareem Jackson at corner. But they’ve been forced to move Javier Arenas to cornerback, where he’ll be outmatched against tall receivers.
Arenas is a proven commodity in the return game, and Leigh Tiffin was money most of the season at placekicker.
Unless something absolutely disastrous happens, there’s no reason the Tide can’t have a better record than last year. But if they’re going to do any better than that, that top-ranked recruiting class had better be ready to play now.
Here’s the schedule:
Aug. 30: vs. Clemson (at Atlanta)
As I said a couple days ago, the Tide hasn’t beaten anyone named Tigers since Nov. 16, 2002. They could certainly win this game, but Clemson doesn’t have anywhere near the question marks heading in.
Sept. 6: Tuland
A nice breather after a tough opener.
Sept. 13: Western Kentucky
If this were a basketball game I guarantee you Mark Gottfried would lose it. And I think we all know the Tide can’t ignore Sun Belt teams anymore, eh?
Sept. 20: at Arkansas
If you’re going to start the SEC season on the road, it might as well be against a team as down as Arkansas who will be coming off a thrashing at Texas.
Sept. 27: at Georgia
Even if the Tide might not be a juggernaut, this is the one game on the schedule I can’t see them winning for any reason.
Oct. 4: Kentucky
The Wildcats are rebuilding.
Oct. 18: Ole Miss
Beware, the Rebs are dangerous.
Oct. 25: at Tennessee
I was prepared to call this one a win a couple weeks ago, and Bama could pull it off. But I like this Tennessee team.
Nov. 1: Arkansas State
This should be a good tune-up for Amen Corner.
Nov. 8: at LSU
I would listen if you said Bama could take this one, and there are certainly reasons to think so. Les Miles will be pulling out all his boneheaded stops to beat Nick Saban in Baton Rouge, so the potential is there for an upset. But LSU’s better. For now.
Nov. 15: Mississippi State
This should be a war. I think Bama’s losing skid in the series comes to an end, but it won’t be easy.
We’ll get to that last game later.
Now we come to Auburn.
The Tigers are in a bit of a weird position heading into 2008.
This team is good, but in a more normal SEC year (Read: When more than 2 teams return with any certainty) they probably wouldn’t be generating quite as much buzz.
That’s not to say they couldn’t potentially be pretty special if they play their cards right.
Tony Franklin proved in just under two weeks of practice he could give Auburn an offense that at least resembled something functional, and the Tigers looked pretty good in spring practice with his spread system.
-quick aside-
I’m getting a bit tired of hearing about how you have to run the ball to win in the SEC blah blah blah blah.
For one thing, the most dominant team of the 1990s threw the ball all over the field. You might remember that Florida won six SEC championships in Spurrier’s tenure (and you could even make the case that barring probation in his first year and some bad breaks in others they would’ve won it all 12 seasons he was there). Tennessee liked to sling the ball around while Peyton Manning was there and won 10 games three years in a row. Kentucky got to two bowl games while Franklin was there with Tim Couch and Dusty Bonner slinging it all over the place. Alabama won its last SEC title with a balanced offense that until the last few games of the season was throwing it more than running it.
Tony Franklin will run the ball at Auburn. He’ll probably run it about as much as he throws it. So please, save me the tough-man bravado.
-end aside-
Anyway, no matter who the quarterback is the new offense should be successful, whether it becomes more of an option-type spread under Kodi Burns or a more conventional spread under Chris Todd.
The reason? The running backs.
A big part of the spread offense is stretching the defense, and they have Brad Lester and Tristan Davis (plus Mario Fannin doing whatever it is he’ll be doing) to get outside and Ben Tate to pound it up the middle. There might not be a deeper corps of quality running backs in the SEC (not that that’s uncharted territory for Auburn).
All five starters are back from what became a pretty good offensive line (this is assuming, of course, that Chaz Ramsey is able to return from his injury, but even then they shouldn’t be hurting too bad). In fact, it’s probably the team strength (although the running backs and linebackers might disagree with that).
The biggest question mark on the entire team, however, is at wide receiver.
Rod Smith is back after leading the team with 52 receptions last season (I don’t know about you, but I was kind of surprised it was that many), and second-leading receiver Montez Billings is also back. Beyond that, previously unproven or underperforming names like Robert Dunn, Chris Slaughter, James Swinton and Tim Hawthorne will be relied upon.
You could make the argument - and I’d probably agree with you - that the receivers were so vastly under-utilized in the last two years of the Borges era that they never were able to develop a rhythm or prove themselves, but if Auburn is planning to really spread the field - which, despite being able to do all they want with the running backs, you really need to be able to do with a quality wide receiving corps - they’re all going to have to really step it up.
The tight end spot seems to be in good hands with Gabe McKenzie and Tommy Trott.
Defensively, there are a few question marks but no reason for out-and-out panic.
Antonio Coleman - who has been criminally under-recognized in the preseason - is back to wreak havoc at defensive end, and super defensive tackle Sen’Derrick Marks is also back. There’s not a tremendous amount of depth, so keeping injuries to a minimum is needed.
The linebacking corps has no such problem. Tray Blackmon seems to have ended his personal issues, so assuming he stays healthy he’ll be a force in the middle, and Craig Stevens and Chris Evans are proven commodities on the outside. They also have outstanding backups in Courtney Harden, Josh Bynes and Merrill Johnson, among others.
The secondary has some concerns, though. Jerraud Powers is back after an outstanding year at corner, as is super sophomore safety Zac Etheridge, who seemed to be everywhere at times. Aairon Savage was moved to cornerback, and the free safety spot is, at the moment, a bit up in the air.
But the Tigers know they’re set in the kicking game with Wes “Onions” Byrum at placekicker and Ryan Shoemaker at punter.
Here’s the schedule:
Aug. 30: Louisiana-Monroe
A good chance to work out all the kinks before getting down to business.
Sept. 6: Southern Miss
The Golden Eagles are always dangerous, even if they might be a bit down this year. And having the dreaded 11:30 kick is never a good omen for Auburn.
Sept. 13: at Mississippi State
Everyone and their grandmother has been telling me the Bulldogs will take this one, and they might. But I’m not really all that sold on them.
Sept. 20: LSU
Getting LSU early this season is a big plus. I really think Auburn runs the Bayou Bengals off the field in this one (and by run off the field, I mean something like 27-10, which is a blowout when compared to the last few games of this series).
Sept. 27: Tennessee
Since Phil Fulmer might be a bit distracted in the days leading up to this one it could be an Auburn cakewalk.
Oct. 4: at Vanderbilt
The only real danger in this one is if the Tigers, who really should be 5-0 coming in, start believing the hype a bit.
Oct. 11: Arkansas
Hey did you know Tommy Tuberville was almost fired and replaced by Bobby Petrino five years ago? You will by kickoff.
Oct. 23: West Virginia
This game is big regardless, but could - and I think will - be huge. Auburn could be 7-0 heading in, and the Mountaineers will almost certainly be undefeated barring an upset. But I really don’t think Auburn matches up well here on the road.
Nov. 1: at Mississippi
This one could be really dangerous on the road.
Nov. 8: Tennessee-Martin
As long as the Tigers don’t get confused and think they’re playing an intrasquad scrimmage they should be fine.
Nov. 15: Georgia
I really don’t think the Tigers are as good as the Bulldogs, but since UGA will be playing the last of a horrifying stretch of road games Auburn will certainly have a good chance.
And now we move to the big one.
Nov. 29: The Iron Bowl
I said from around March until the beginning of this month that Bama would break the streak, but since I’ve soured on them since then I just don’t see it happening. Auburn should be able to run the ball at will here, and the defense should have enough to slow down the Tide offense. Now, Alabama will be a much better football team by the time this game rolls around, but Auburn will be too.
So there you have it.
Alabama is just still a year away from being a serious SEC player. There’s no way they beat Georgia and almost no way they beat LSU. You could argue they might beat Clemson, Tennessee or Auburn, and you might be right, but I can’t see the Tide doing better than 7-5 or 8-4. The streak reaches seven.
Auburn, however, is a bit of a wild card. They might have an outside shot at the national title, or the whole thing could implode and they could find themselves playing a bowl game in Birmingham a couple days before Christmas. However, I think they win them all except West Virginia and Georgia, win the West, lose to Georgia again and have a nice time in Orlando or Tampa come New Year’s Day.
