2008 Previews: California

Get your riot gear as we head to Berkeley, Calif., for the California Golden Bears at Preview No. 57. Previews of all 65 BCS conference schools, plus Notre Dame and state schools, will be posted daily in no particular order. To view all previews, click here.

It’s a toss-up between the Bears and Kansas State for the most embarrassing second-half meltdown of 2007.

Cal was 5-0 and ranked No. 2 in the country when they were upset at home by Oregon State, and they managed to follow that up with losses to UCLA, Washington and Stanford, and nearly lost at home to Washington State.

This year, things don’t look great, but with a Pac-10 that won’t be anywhere near as good as it was last year they should have a better record.

Only four starters return on offense, including quarterback Nate Longshore, who looked unbelievable at the start of the season but was a mess by the end. He’ll be pushed by Kevin Riley, who performed well in the bowl win over Air Force.

Whoever’s playing quarterback won’t have a whole lot of options, though.

Cal returns a whopping 273 yards rushing from its backs, although sophomore Jahvid Best is projected as a star, and 12 career catches in the wide receiving corps.

Defensively, the Bears are in pretty good shape. Eight starters return, but that defense wasn’t particularly strong as the season came to a close.

If this was the team the Bears had a year ago, I don’t think they’d make a bowl. This year, they could potentially win 10 games.

Here’s the schedule:

Aug. 30: Michigan State
If this were in East Lansing it could be extremely dangerous, but I don’t trust the Spartans going cross-country.

Sept. 6: at Washington State
Probably the easiest game on the schedule.

Sept. 13: at Maryland
Now here’s an interesting match-up. The Bears have had a lot of success in non-conference games under Jeff Tedford, and are probably the better team.

Sept. 27: Colorado State
This one shouldn’t be a problem at home.

Oct. 4: Arizona State
This being at home gives Cal a chance, but I like the Sun Devils.

Oct. 18: at Arizona
This one’s dangerous on the road.

Oct. 25: UCLA
The Bruins have a long way to go.

Nov. 1: Oregon
Another game where Cal has a chance at home, but the Ducks should be able to take this one.

Nov. 8: at USC
Only unwinnable game on the schedule.

Nov. 15: at Oregon State
The Beavers are always super scary at home in November.

Nov. 22: Stanford
The Cardinal actually knocked the Bears off last year. I don’t see it happening again.

Dec. 6: Washington
The Golden Bears put the final nail in Ty Willingham’s coffin.

Looking at the schedule I’m saying 9-3, but Cal just isn’t good enough for me to confidently say they win that many games. I’ll say 7-5 or 8-4.

Where’s DeRon?

OK, so that’s not exactly a lifelike image of Auburn DB DeRon Furr, but it might as well be. The freshman was missing from Sunday’s practice, and Tommy Tuberville says he has no idea where he is. (Please note that isn’t quite the same thing as not knowing why he wasn’t in practice…methinks Tuberville’s playing this one close to the vest.)

Furr was competing for playing time as a backup safety, along with fellow freshmen Christian Thompson and Marcus Jemison and redshirt freshman Mike Slade. As you may recall, he was a quarterback in the spring, but switched to defense looking for early playing time. At the moment, it looks like that is very much in doubt—along with much else about his AU career.

Furr’s absence—which appears to have been of the unexcused variety—was the big news of Sunday’s session, the second of the preseason.

Other than that, it was a pretty slow day. Both quarterbacks looked good; Kodi Burns threw the ball better, I thought, with a much more consistent spiral. The most impressive wideout was probably senior Robert Dunn, in my opinion. I said it in the spring: Dunn could be a guy who has a big year this year. Certainly he’s due…he’s waited a long time to have the kind of impact he expected to have when he first arrived in 2005. He’s a really, really talented guy who has the ability to be a star in this offense. We’ll see.

AU did have its second practice-field fight of the preseason. This one was between LB Merrill Johnson and OT Ryan Pugh. Both laughed about it after practice. Johnson, a cagey vet, said “It was the heat of the moment. It’s all love now.“ And in case you’re wondering, all three judges scored the fight a draw.

More to come after Monday afternoon’s session, the first one in which players not named Mario Fannin can wear shoulder pads.

2008 Previews: Cincinnati

In the “I still have trouble remembering that they’re actually in a BCS conference” category, we have Cincinnati at Preview No. 56. Previews of all 65 BCS conference schools, plus Notre Dame and state schools, will be posted daily in no particular order. To view all previews, click here.

Cincinnati has quietly become a strong program over the course of this decade.

Rick Minter got them to a few bowl games in the early part of the decade, then Mark Dantonio moved the Bearcats up a notch as they transitioned to the Big East, and now Brian Kelly is capitalizing on all that, leading them to a 10-win season in his first year last year.

Things won’t be quite so good this year, but the Bearcats should remain in the bowl picture.

The offense is looking pretty good most everywhere, with the top four pass-catchers and a couple of experienced backs ready to step in, as well as three of five starters returning on the offensive line.

The quarterback position, however, is a question.

Demetrius Jones, last seen running for his life from Georgia Tech defenders as Notre Dame’s starting quarterback and promptly bolting, has transferred. He’s coming off surgery for a torn labrum, but Kelly seems confident he’ll be able to operate his spread offense.

Defensively, there are problems.

The Bearcats have big-time issues at defensive end and in the linebacking corps, where they’ve been moving people around like crazy.

Talent is everywhere, and considering Cincy is in a conference where virtually everyone except South Florida and West Virginia are on equal footing - well, except Syracuse - there’s potential for another good season.

Here’s the schedule:

Aug. 28: Eastern Kentucky
The Colonels are in big trouble here.

Sept. 6: at Oklahoma
Well, Jones will probably find himself in familiar territory to his last start at quarterback here.

Sept. 20: Miami (OH)
This is actually one of the oldest rivalries in college football. It’s good that Cincy will have two weeks to recover from the beating they’re going to take in Norman, and they should be able to win this one.

Sept. 27: at Akron
The Zips shouldn’t be too much trouble.

Oct. 4: at Marshall
This ain’t the Thundering Herd of five years ago.

Oct. 11: Rutgers
And the Bearcats open conference play with a big one. If Jones plays as well as Kelly thinks he can, they might win this one.

Oct. 25: at Connecticut
Not an easy road trip, but the Bearcats should be able to come away with the win.

Oct. 30: South Florida
The Bulls should watch out for the ambush, but they should be too good to lose this one.

Nov. 8: at West Virginia
Who made this schedule? Getting four tough teams in the conference in a row is no way to win.

Nov. 14: at Louisville
The Cardinals spoiled the Bearcats perfect run to start the season last year. Cincy is probably better right now, but winning at Louisville is no easy task.

Nov. 22: Pittsburgh
Wannstache on the road makes this one a potential win.

Nov. 29: Syracuse
Hey, it’s a gimme. First in a while.

Dec. 6: at Hawaii
A nice trip to end the season for what should be a win against a depleted squad of Warriors.

Well, when you look at the schedule there’s no reason the Bearcats can’t be 7-6 at worse. I’ll call for 8-5, because they’re bound to win at least one of those iffy games. Maybe more.

Practice observations, Day One

The first practice of the preseason is over. One down, 22 to go.

Saturday’s session lasted a little more than three hours in considerable heat and humidity, though there were copious breaks. A few of the things that caught my eye:

* Chris Todd and Kodi Burns looked awfully good. In 1-on-1 drills (technically, it’s 2-on-1, since there’s a QB and a receiver against one DB, but whatever) Todd was 10-for-16 with an interception, but had some bad luck with dropped passes. Burns was 11-for-14, but really struggled to consistently throw spirals and hit receivers in stride, a consistent problem for him. In seven-on-seven drills (AKA “pass skele”), Todd was 7-for-8 (with a tough drop by redshirt freshman FB John Douglas) and Burns was 11-for-11, mostly on check downs. They each looked good in 11-on-11, with an 80-yard touchdown apiece. (Doom-and-gloomers, please note: Both long plays came against CB Aairon Savage, currently projected to be a starter.)

* CB Ryan Williams practiced with the team. Tommy Tuberville says Williams is in good academic standing, which is honestly sort of weird: A week ago, Tuberville said Williams was in the “doghouse,“ the same term he used last year when DB Lorenzo Ferguson and WR Terrell Zachery were academically ineligible. Tuberville also said Williams needed a good performance in the summer semester to get out of the “doghouse.“ So what has happened in the past week? The summer term isn’t over yet, after all. Very strange, no?

* DT Tez Doolittle, a former Opelika star, was at practice—a remarkable recovery from his ruptured Achilles’, suffered last August. He’s not yet 100 percent, but he’s come a long way. According to Tuberville, Tez is actually fully recovered from the Achilles’ injury and is currently slowed by a sore hamstring. If so, we’ll see how quickly he can be back.

* Don’t hold your breath on OG Chaz Ramsey (back), folks. Auburn doesn’t expect him back at practice for at least a few weeks, and as Tuberville said today, “Only the good Lord knows for sure.“ On the field, Byron Isom will get the first shot at filling in at right guard. Isom got several earfuls from Hugh Nall on Saturday, which is usually a sign that Hugh has high expectations for a guy.

One more thing: I talked to freshman DB Neiko Thorpe about his name change, which I mentioned in yesterday’s blog. Apparently he just decided to change his name to match his father, Glenn Thorpe. Glenn and Neiko’s mother, Nickie Lipscomb, are married, but when Neiko was born, his mother still went by Lipscomb, and he kept his mother’s name. The entire family recently decided to go by Thorpe, so Neiko legally changed his name. That’s not easy: He had to get a new birth certificate, new social security number, new driver’s license, the whole shebang. But there’s the whole story.

2008 Previews: Ohio State

We come to Ohio State, home of the runners-up, for Preview No. 55. Previews of all 65 BCS conference schools, plus Notre Dame and state schools, will be posted daily in no particular order. To view all previews, click here.

I hate to sound like an SEC homer here, but I want to provide you some raw numbers.

Ohio State’s defense’s points allowed per game in the regular season the last two years: 10.5 (and it’s even lower without the Michigan game in 06 and last year’s Illinois loss, because those are the only teams to score more than 17 on them in two years.)

That same defense’s points allowed per game in the last two BCS championship games: 39.5

Something doesn’t add up, eh?

Ohio State is a supremely talented team, and even moreso when you stack them up against the rest of the Big Ten, which outside of Illinois is a virtual wasteland right now (but getting better).

Unfortunately, they haven’t had what it takes against - yes I’m saying it - faster SEC schools.

We’ll come back to all this later.

However, this looks like Jim Tressel - for my money one of the two or three best coaches in the country - will have his best team yet in Columbus.

Depending on who you’re reading, 18 or 19 starters are back from a team that was really a year away last year and somehow found their way into the title game.

It all starts with running back Beanie Wells.

Wells rushed for 1,609 yards, and is still running on that opening touchdown in the national title game.

The two Brians - Robiskie and Hartline - are back at wide receiver, and both were productive with a less-than-stellar Todd Boeckman at quarterback all last year.

Now, in fairness, the Buckeyes didn’t exactly want Boeckman to control the game, and the pounding he took in the title game shows why, but he promises to be improved in his senior campaign.

And he’d better be, because if he’s not the Buckeye faithful will be calling for mega-recruit Terrelle Pryor to come on. And even if Boeckman performs well you’ll probably see plenty of Pryor.

Four of five starters return on the line.

The only major loss on defense was Vernon “My god, look at those biceps” Gholston.

But the defense will still be anchored by middle linebacker James “Hey did you know my dad was in Legion of Doom” Laurinaitis, as well as shutdown cornerback Malcolm Jenkins.

And even the kicker and punter will both be back.

Which brings us back to our original math.

Now virtually every publication so far is projecting the Buckeyes to go to the title game. And with good reason, since there’s only one game on the schedule they can possibly lose.

But that one game is USC.

Now, the Trojans have some holes this year and aren’t quite as good as they’ve been in past years, but they’re still going to have a ton of speed. And the game will be played in LA, at night.

But we’ll come back to it in a second.

Here’s the schedule:

Aug. 30: Youngstown State
The Buckeyes continue the Ohio tour of blowouts.

Sept. 6: Ohio
See above.

Sept. 13: USC
The biggest intersectional game since the OSU-Texas series comes early in the year. The Buckeyes will have the advantage in experience, so getting the Trojans in what will be only their second game of the season isn’t bad. But I just can’t see them winning here. If they do, watch out.

Sept. 20: Troy
Troy isn’t a team you want to be playing coming on the heels of either a huge win or a bitter loss. That said, they’re not going to win or anything.

Sept. 27: Minnesota
This might be the easiest game OSU will have played yet.

Oct. 4: at Wisconsin
And here’s the toughest, non-USC division. Other than Illinois, Wisconsin is the Big Ten team best equipped to beat the Buckeyes. But I can’t see them doing it. But this should be a fun game for running/defense aficionados.

Oct. 11: Purdue
No problem here.

Oct. 18: at Michigan State
OSU does have some scary Big Ten road trips, and this is one of them. If the Buckeyes are undefeated here, look for plenty of mentions of OSU’s unbelievable loss to the Spartans in 1998, as well as plenty of appearances of this picture.

Oct. 25: Penn State
JOE PATERNO ON THE ROAD! JOE PATERNO ON THE ROAD!

Nov. 8: at Northwestern
The Wildcats beat the Buckeyes in Evanston four years ago. This will probably be a little closer to OSU’s last visit there, though.

Nov. 15: at Illinois
Another scary road trip. We all remember the Illini’s upset in Columbus last year, but Rashard Mendenhall is no longer involved. Juice Williams, however, is. So this should be interesting. This will be the closest game OSU faces in Big Ten play.

Nov. 22: Michigan
Tressel makes it five in a row and 7-of-8 against the Wolverines.

This is a very good team, but until they prove they can beat a strong non-conference foe I can’t pick them to beat USC. So I’ll go with 11-1, and when you consider how early the USC game is they could very well sneak their way back into the title game again.