2009 Previews: Michigan

We go to the artists formerly known as one of college football’s premier programs, Michigan, for Preview No. 16. Previews of all 65 BCS conference schools, plus Notre Dame and state schools, in no particular order, will run daily through Aug. 22.

Last year’s Michigan team may have been one of the best examples ever of Murphy’s Law in college football.

Everything that could have possibly gone wrong did, and did so spectacularly.

They lost to Toledo. They ranked 109th in the NCAA in total offense and 67th in total defense. They lost by 35 to Ohio State. Were it not for a miracle comeback win over Wisconsin in the fourth game of the season they could have easily been 2-10.

But here’s the thing: They also could have pretty easily been a .500 team, despite how bad they actually were.

The transition to Rich Rodriguez’s spread system was incredibly painful, and will remain painful for at least this year, if not more. But, if all goes as planned, the program will be much better off in the long run for it.

This year’s team should be a lot better, possibly even significantly so, but a lot has to break right.

The most important area is, of course, quarterback. Nick Sheridan and the rest of last year’s pupu platter were beyond awful. Sheridan is back, but isn’t exactly likely to be the one seeing the field.

Hotshot fresman Tate Forcier was in for spring practice, and despite his lack of experience will probably be the guy. Fellow freshman Denard Robinson will probably see the field as well.

Whoever is under center has plenty of weapons: Running backs Brandon Minor, Carlos Brown, Michael Shaw and Vincent Smith will all get plenty of carries. And all the wide receivers, though they were not very good, are back as well, and should improve with another year in the system.

Four of five starters are back on the offensive line.

The defense is probably going to struggle, though. Only five starters are back from last year’s group, which was actually not all that bad but wore down because the offense was so unspeakably horrible (sound familiar, Auburn fans?). New defensive coordinator, former Syracuse head coach Greg “Gerg” Robinson, should help out quite a bit, but he’s going to have his work cut out for them.

The goal for this year, as crazy as this is to say for a team that had 40 straight winning seasons, is to get to a bowl. And it’s within reach, but they’re going to have to pull a mild upset somewhere.

Here’s the schedule:

Sept. 5: Western Michigan
The Broncos aren’t a bad team, so sleepwalking through this isn’t an option (the Wolverines really don’t have that option anywhere this year). But they absolutely should win here.

Sept. 12: Notre Dame
The Irish are a better team, but Michigan, assuming they improve as much as I think they should, will have a shot here.

Sept. 19: Eastern Michigan
W

Sept. 26: Indiana
It’s crazy to think Michigan is closer to Indiana than Ohio State, but they should get the win here.

Oct. 3: at Michigan State
Little brother gets a second win in a row in the series.

Oct. 10: at Iowa
Assuming the Hawkeyes aren’t all in jail they should win this one.

Oct. 17: Delaware State
Delaware State actually forfeited a game it had previously scheduled to get this paycheck. The hilarious thing would be if they pulled an Appalachian State (don’t bet on it)

Oct. 24: Penn State
The Nittany Lions finally got over the hump in beating Michigan last year. Barring something weird happening, they should make it two in a row.

Oct. 31: at Illinois
A win here is possible, but the Illini are probably too fast right now for a team in rebuilding mode like this.

Nov. 7: Purdue
The Boilermakers just aren’t very good.

Nov. 14: at Wisconsin
If Michigan wants to make a bowl, they have to win this one.

Nov. 21: Ohio State
Ohio State is a much, much better team. But, if Michigan does improve, if they hit their stride over the course of the year and if everything breaks right, a win here is a slight possibility.

If Michigan is going to get to six wins, they’re going to have to beat Notre Dame or Wisconsin. And I think they can beat one of them.