Weekend Picks, Week 7

The only thing keeping me from a perfect week last week were three SEC games. Odd.

Starting early this week thanks to a somewhat compelling Wednesday night game.

Last Week: 18-3
Season: 115-30

And now, this week’s picks. As always, AP Top 25 and SEC games.

Tonight
No. 5 Boise State at Tulsa
I didn’t realize these two were playing this season. I’m going to go out on a limb and say this could be dangerous for the Broncos. At the very least, there are going to be a lot of points scored here. Boise State 48, Tulsa 42

Thursday
No. 8 Cincinnati at No. 21 South Florida
This might be your Big East championship game right here. And even though I like Cincy a lot, the Bulls have been known to play well in mid-week home games (ask West Virginia in 2007 or Kansas last year). South Florida 23, Cincinnati 20

Saturday
Arkansas at No. 1 Florida
The Hogs are good enough to score with the Gators for a while. They just don’t have the horses. And Urban Meyer will probably be pretty angry about people like me (not me, specifically, of course. he doesn’t know who I am) starting to doubt his team. Florida 49, Arkansas 26

No. 22 South Carolina at No. 2 Alabama
I really don’t think the Gamecocks are good enough to be ranked at all, even if I do have them in my rankings. Alabama 27, South Carolina 6

No. 3 Texas vs. No. 20 Oklahoma (at Dallas)
There is a lot to like about this game. You have Texas, very good but untested, facing a semi-reeling and beat up Oklahoma squad which finally has its leader back. Stoops’ team has performed well with its back against the wall before, and I kind of see it happening again. Oklahoma 37, Texas 34

No. 4 Virginia Tech at No. 19 Georgia Tech
This is a juicy one right here. Virginia Tech is playing very, very well all of a sudden, and Georgia Tech seems to have gotten its offense back on track. And it’s in Atlanta, which doesn’t exactly give the Yellow Jackets a homefield advantage but at least beats playing in Blacksburg. Still, I’m going with the Hokies. Virginia Tech 24, Georgia Tech 21

No. 6 USC at No. 25 Notre Dame
This game might be the final nail in the coffin for Charlie Weis. USC 28, Notre Dame 6

No. 7 Ohio State at Purdue
The Buckeyes will keep things close to the vest until that brutal stretch of at Penn State, vs. Iowa, at Michigan to close out the year. Ohio State 23, Purdue 7

No. 9 Miami at UCF
At least the Canes are kind enough to deliver the beatdown in the Knights’ house. Miami 38, UCF 7

No. 11 Iowa at Wisconsin
Definite danger for the Hawkeyes here. But I have just enough faith in them to not pick the upset, though that’s mostly because I have no faith whatsoever in Wisconsin. Iowa 20, Wisconsin 16

Colorado State at No. 12 TCU
This one shouldn’t be a problem. TCU 27, Colorado State 7

Minnesota at No. 14 Penn State
I could see the Gophers giving Paterno & Co. a game for a while. Penn State 28, Minnesota 21

Texas Tech at No. 15 Nebraska
Should be a shootout. Nebraska 41, Texas Tech 34

Missouri at No. 16 Oklahoma State
Here is where all the Cowboys’ problems catch up to them. Missouri 35, Oklahoma State 28

No. 17 Kansas at Colorado
The Jayhawks delivered a beatdown so massive their last time in Boulder the Buffs are still recovering from it. It won’t be that bad this time, but it won’t be pretty. Kansas 38, Colorado 17

No. 18 BYU at San Diego State
No problem on this roadtrip. Maybe some time for a beach trip. BYU 35, San Diego State 10

No. 23 Houston at Tulane
Tulane has been frisky over the years, but never good enough to get it done. That will continue here. Houston 41, Tulane 24

No. 24 Utah at UNLV
Not much to say here. Utah 30, UNLV 20

Kentucky at Auburn
Despite all the problems the Wildcats have with injuries and just being the Wildcats, I think they’re just good enough to keep this one from getting out of hand. Auburn 38, Kentucky 14

Georgia at Vanderbilt
After that pitiful performance at Tennessee, Georgia is pretty much dead to me. I would not be at all shocked to see them lose this game. That being said, they probably won’t, but they probably will continue their tradition of playing underwhelmingly and nearly losing. Georgia 21, Vanderbilt 14

UAB at Ole Miss
I have no interest whatsoever in even glimpsing these two play each other. Ole Miss 20, UAB 13

Mississippi State at Middle Tennessee
This one could be somewhat entertaining. Mississippi State 38, Middle Tennessee 31

Why I keep contradicting myself

Loyal readers of the blog (hi dad!) may recall seeing this in last week’s If I Had A Vote Rankings:

1. Florida
They’re No. 1 until they lose or somebody unequivocally proves they’re better.

And as you (Dad) may have seen, I moved Alabama ahead of them.

I don’t know that you can say that Alabama is, unequivocally, better than Florida. But what we have on paper and in the eyeball test is making me lean that way.

The Tide have a more-convincing-than-the-final-score win over a very, very good Virginia Tech team, blew a pretty good Arkansas team out of the water, and even if Jevan Snead was actually good would’ve blown Ole Miss out Saturday. And believe me, Ole Miss is pretty good everywhere but quarterback and offensive line right now.

Florida, on the other hand, completely waxed overmatched teams like Charleston Southern, Troy and Kentucky, but struggled against Tennessee and LSU.

Now, granted, both the Vols and Bayou Bengals have very good defenses, but playing against teams that deficient on offense would have caused the Gators to just go absolutely nuts over the second half of last season.

And, I know, Tebow wasn’t himself Saturday night. But, overall, to me this Gators team doesn’t look very hungry right now. The defense does, but the offense does not.

Florida won’t even face another team that should really challenge them the rest of the way. Alabama has a couple toughies.

But all signs are pointing to them both reaching the SEC Championship game undefeated. And, right now, I like the Tide. I can’t believe I’m saying that.

But, just like last year, things could change quickly.

IIHAV, Week 7

This week’s rankings feature a revelation so shocking, I’m going to do another blog post tomorrow to talk about it.

Elsewhere, we’re mostly just shifting around the middle with a total overhaul of the back nine teams or so.

Here are last week’s rankings:

1. Florida
2. Alabama
3. Texas
4. Virginia Tech
5. Miami
6. LSU
7. TCU
8. Boise State
9. USC
10. Ohio State
11. Cincinnati
12. Iowa
13. Penn State
14. Oregon
15. Oklahoma
16. BYU
17. Auburn
18. Kansas
19. Ole Miss
20. Oklahoma State
21. South Florida
22. Georgia Tech
23. Wisconsin
24. Nebraska
25. Georgia

And now, this week’s IIHAV rankings:

1. Alabama
See tomorrow.

2. Florida
See above.

3. Texas
I still like this team, but we’ll finally get an idea of who they are (and a good look at them, for that matter) after this week’s Red River Shootout.

4. Virginia Tech
Ever since the last 90 seconds or so of the Nebraska game, this has been one of the best teams in the country.

5. Miami
One more mostly easy one before another tough stretch of games (though nowhere near as tough as what they’ve already gone through).

6. USC
Hopefully they’ll really unload on Notre Dame this week, because I really didn’t like being forced to rank them.

7. TCU
Close call this week.

8. Boise State
If they’re going to make the BCS they’re going to want to score about 80 per game from here on in.

9. Ohio State
Plugging along.

10. Cincinnati
Their game aginst USC is probably the best game of the week.

11. Iowa
I still have no idea how good this team may or may not be.

12. LSU
Plenty of losses still to come here, but they made the Gators work. Hard.

13. Oregon
I still can’t get over how much better this team has gotten from the first week until now.

14. Penn State
They’re good, but that’s about it. Nothing extra to put them over the top.

15. Oklahoma
They haven’t lost a conference game, so their chance to do something this season really starts this week.

16. South Florida
I’m almost ready to jump on their bandwagon.

17. Georgia Tech
You don’t just waltz into Doak Campbell Stadium and put up 49 points.

18. Kansas
This team looks eminently beatable, but here they are for now.

19. Nebraska
Their last-second loss at Va Tech is looking better and better each week.

20. BYU
I’m starting ro remember why I didn’t think a whole lot of this team in the first place.

21. South Carolina
Not at all convinced this team is good. We’ll get a better look Saturday in Tuscaloosa.

22. Oklahoma State
The loss of Dez Bryant may be delayed retribution from the football gods’ for Gundy’s 2007 rant. Bryant doesn’t do everything right.

23. Notre Dame
I hate that I’m ranking this team. But I am nonetheless.

24. Auburn
I know they just got pummelled, but I’m still fairly bullish on this team. they’ve got a fair shot at winning nine or 10 games, still.

25. Oregon State
Gearing up for their annual late-season conference title run.

Dropped out: No. 19 Ole Miss, No. 23 Wisconsin, No. 25 Georgia

Just missed the cut: Arkansas, Stanford, Wisconsin, Ole Miss, Houston, Wake Forest

On the radar: Missouri, Arizona, Washington, Tulsa

Weekend Picks, Week 6

Not a great week last week. But this week is going to be so great (at least from a watching, if not picking, standpoint) I can hardly contain myself.

Last week: 15-5
Season: 97-27

And now, this week’s picks. As always, AP Top 25 and SEC games.

Tonight
No. 21 Nebraska at No. 24 Missouri
I haven’t had a chance to watch Missouri yet, so I’m looking forward to this one. On paper, they really shouldn’t be all that good, but they are at home and it is a Thursday night. But I’m going to pick the Huskers and if they lose I’ll just chalk it up to not having enough information. Nebraska 38, Missouri 31

Saturday
No. 1 Florida at No. 4 LSU
As long as Tebow plays, Florida wins. If he doesn’t, they lose. Pretty simple. I’m going to operate under the assumption he will, in fact, play. Florida 24, LSU 14

Colorado at No. 2 Texas
Those Colorado players may wish they had just gone to play intramurals after this one. Texas 44, Colorado 17

No. 3 Alabama at No. 20 Ole Miss
Heading into the season I thought this game set up nicely for a Rebel coronation, and who knows, it still might. But they’ve just looked way too average to beat a team as good as Alabama has looked so far. Alabama 21, Ole Miss 13

Boston College at No. 5 Virginia Tech
The Eagles have been surprisingly good so far. I don’t see them winning in Blacksburg against a Tech team that seems to have finally found itself. Virginia Tech 27, Boston College 10

Wisconsin at No. 9 Ohio State
The Badgers have been playing well, which is a pleasant surprise after two underwhelming years. But I don’t see them winning in Columbus. Ohio State 17, Wisconsin 7

No. 10 TCU at Air Force
This could be a dangerous trip for the Horned Frogs. TCU 27, Air Force 23

Florida A&M at No. 11 Miami
I normally would hate on scheduling a game like this, but after the four games the Hurricanes have just played this is a well-deserved break. Miami 52, Florida A&M 7

Michigan at No. 12 Iowa
The Wolverines have been known to ruin Big Ten teams’ lunch in situations like this, but they just don’t have the horses yet. Iowa 20, Michigan 10

No. 13 Oregon at UCLA
The Bruins have improved quite a bit. I don’t think they’ve improved enough for this one just yet, though. Oregon 30, UCLA 21

Eastern Illinois at No. 14 Penn State
The Nittany Lions’ non-conference slate rivals just about anyone for worst ever. Penn State 48, Eastern Illinois 0

No. 15 Oklahoma State at Texas A&M
Losing Dez Bryant will hurt the Cowboys big-time. Luckily for them, it won’t this week. Oklahoma State 35, Texas A&M 20

Iowa State at No. 16 Kansas
Paul Rhoads has got to be regretting this move. Kansas 41, Iowa State 17

No. 17 Auburn at Arkansas
I know my policy has been to not believe in the Tigers until after this game, but I’m tired of picking against them and being wrong, and, while they didn’t score a ton of points, they made a Monte Kiffin defense look silly last week. And that is pretty impressive. Auburn 49, Arkansas 38

No. 18 BYU at UNLV
I don’t know a lot about the Runnin’ Rebels, but I know enough to think BYU shouldn’t have too much problem winning in Vegas. BYU 34, UNLV 16

Baylor at No. 19 Oklahoma
I’m catching flack from Sooner fans for a lot of things, but one of them is saying Baylor is rejuvenated. They are a lot better, aren’t they? They did win at Wake Forest. That being said, whether it’s Sam Bradford or Landry Jones under center, the Sooners should win handily. Oklahoma 42, Baylor 14

No. 22 Georgia Tech at Florida State
Will this be a rally around the leader game for the Seminoles? Or are they just finished? I’m leaning toward the latter. Georgia Tech 28, Florida State 17

Kentucky at No. 25 South Carolina
This game will probably be really, really boring. South Carolina 17, Kentucky 10

Georgia at Tennessee
I wonder when the last time these two played with neither ranked was. Georgia 18, Tennessee 13

Houston at Mississippi State
This one could go a lot of ways. Even with that dreadful performance at UTEP last week, I’m leaning toward the Cougs. Houston 41, Mississippi State 37

Vanderbilt at Army
How do you know your program doesn’t totally belong in the SEC? You take road trips to Rice and Army in the same season. Vanderbilt 28, Army 10

Super-belated IIHAV

So yeah, I’m late on this. Sorry. Had a few too many obligations yesterday and up until now today.

On another note, Go Pack! Down with Favre!

This week features a few adjustments in the line of the Cleveland Plain Dealer’s Doug Lesmerises, but I don’t go quite as far as him in ranking solely based on performance, which I think is fine.

I’ve thought a lot about how I rank teams, and I think it boils down to about three things: How they’ve done, who they’ve beaten and how good I actually think they are. That’s why I have habitually had LSU so low, though they make a jump today.

1. Florida
2. Texas
3. Alabama
4. Boise State
5. Oklahoma
6. TCU
7. USC
8. Houston
9. Ohio State
10. Virginia Tech
11. Cincinnati
12. Iowa
13. LSU
14. Penn State
15. Oregon
16. Miami
17. BYU
18. Kansas
19. Ole Miss
20. Oklahoma State
21. California
22. Georgia Tech
23. Michigan
24. Auburn
25. Georgia

And now this week’s If I Had A Vote rankings.

1. Florida
They’re No. 1 until they lose or somebody unequivocally proves they’re better.

2. Alabama
Not a great win at Kentucky, but they’ve looked good so far and have a much better resume than Texas.

3. Texas
Very good team. Looking more and more like the Big 12 is theirs to lose.

4. Virginia Tech
A loss to a very good Alabama team and wins over Nebraska and a very good Miami team. I’m on the bandwagon.

5. Miami
The Canes are good. Not much question at this point.

6. LSU
Good team. Too poorly coached to really make it happen.

7. TCU
The Frogs are hopping. *rimshot*

8. Boise State
The win over Oregon is looking pretty good at this point.

9. USC
Good win over Cal, but the Bears are apparently secretly awful again.

10. Ohio State
Solid win over Indiana.

11. Cincinnati
I definitely want to see more of this team. The one time I saw them (vs Rutgers) they looked good.

12. Iowa
Another prime-time showcase this week, so maybe the Hawkeyes will show up.

13. Penn State
This team just doesn’t quite have it this year.

14. Oregon
They’ve gotten things together nicely, and may even get LeGarrette Blount back in case a beatdown is needed.

15. Oklahoma
Looking like a long year for the Sooners.

16. BYU
Yeah so what they beat Oklahoma?

17. Auburn
The TIgers have one good win (West Virginia) and three pretty good ones (La Tech, MSU and Tennessee). This team has a chance to be pretty special. I never thought I’d say that.

18. Kansas
Still a couple more weeks before these guys face a real challenge.

19. Ole Miss
The Rebs have looked exceedingly average so far.

20. Oklahoma State
That Houston loss is looking kinda bad now.

21. South Florida
The Bulls may finally be fulfilling their promise.

22. Georgia Tech
They really haven’t beaten anyone so far. They need a convincing performance at a reeling Florida State this week.

23. Wisconsin
No real wins yet. Maybe they can knock off the Buckeyes this week.

24. Nebraska
I’m not sure why I didn’t have them ranked last week.

25. Georgia
Only Miami has played a tougher schedule thus far. And they should’ve beaten LSU.

Dropped out: No. 8 Houston, No. 21 California, No. 23 Michigan

Just missed the cut: Michigan, South Carolina, Missouri, Stanford