12 to 1: No. 12 Mississippi State

By Andrew Gribble
Auburn University Beat Reporter
Published: July 26, 2009

Our good friends at the New York Times (OK, we’re not friends. At best, we’re colleagues, but even that’s a stretch) have been plowing away all summer in their attempt to rank all 120 FBS programs heading into the 2009 season. You can read it all here.

We’re not that good, nor do we claim to be. So we’re going to stick to the SEC and not be nearly as thorough.

With that ringing endorsement out of the way, let’s get to cracking with our choice to succeed the least, Mississippi State. This series will run daily for the next 12 days. Expect updates sometime around the lunch hour.

Also, while you’re here, check out our OTHER 12-to-1 feature, which is running in the fishwrap. We’re answering 12 questions about Auburn football heading into the season.

THE COACH
Dan Mullen (0-0)—first year at the helm

LAST YEAR’S FINISH
4-8 overall, 2-6 SEC—no bowl appearance

SEC’S 2009 PROJECTION
Sixth place (dead last) in the West.

THE SCHEDULE
Sept. 5 - JACKSON STATE
Sept. 12 - Auburn
Sept. 19 - Vanderbilt
Sept. 26 - L.S.U.
Oct. 3 - GEORGIA TECH
Oct. 10 - HOUSTON
Oct. 17- Middle Tennessee State
Oct. 24 - FLORIDA
Oct. 31- Kentucky
Nov. 14- ALABAMA
Nov. 21- Arkansas
Nov. 28 - OLE MISS
(Home games in CAPS)

RETURNING STARTERS
11 (seven offense, four defense)

WHAT THE QUAD SAYS
“I’m really not sure where wins are going to come from. Jackson State is obviously one, and Middle Tennessee could make two. The other two non-conference games (Georgia Tech and Houston) are going to be very difficult to pull out. So let’s say the Bulldogs finish 2-2 out of the SEC: who can this team beat in conference play? Unfortunately, the four games one would expect Mississippi State most likely to win – Auburn, Vanderbilt, Kentucky and Arkansas – all come on the road. The four other SEC games, despite coming in the friendly confines, are losses. So the outlook isn’t bright, at least for 2009.“

WHAT THEY SAY
“The excitement for our program has been off the charts. When I was hired, we went out, I wanted to give the state of Mississippi a team they could be proud of on and off the field. We promoted our program. They returned by having 31,000 people show up for our spring football game, which was a record in the state of Mississippi. To see that passion the fans have, the excitement they had, drove our team harder to work even harder over the summer.“—Mullen

“Coach Mullen is the new face of Mississippi State football. A lot of people are expecting big things from us. We are going to take it one game at a time.“—offensive tackle Derek Sherrod

WHAT WE SAY
In what Mullen brings to the table in bravado and energy, this year’s version of the Bulldogs is lacking in experience and talent, specifically when applied to the new offense Mullen brings to Starkville. The schedule isn’t exactly friendly to Mullen in his first year, but the expectations certainly will be. No one really expects the Bulldogs to win many games this season and it doesn’t look like they’re going to disappoint by doing something differently.

WHO’S ON THE MEDIA GUIDE?
Mullen. Who else?

STUMBLING BLOCKS
Outside of its first game against Jackson State, Mississippi State has a schedule full of them. That’s what happens when you are a bottom-tier football team. And it gets harder as the season progresses. It’s tough to imagine the Bulldogs will pick up a win over the final month-and-a-half of the season, when it faces Florida, Alabama and Ole Miss at home while traveling to Kentucky and Arkansas. Again, this is going to be a tough year for Mississippi State.

KEY GAME
We’re not biased here, but it’ll be Week 2 against Auburn. No offense to the Egg Bowl, but this will prove what team with a new coach that isn’t Tennessee is more ready to compete in the SEC. The Bulldogs snuck out of Jordan-Hare Stadium with a 19-14 victory in 2007 when they were considerable underdogs, so they know how to win on the Plain when they aren’t supposed to. The odds won’t be nearly as stacked against them this time around, but the stakes will be significantly larger.

UPSET ALERT
The Bulldogs will be ‘dogs in all but two of their games this season, so there are plenty to pick from. Simply going by what team might overlook them the most, our guess is LSU, which has big games at Georgia and against Florida the two weeks directly after its matchup with MSU.

THE NUMBER
15.25—MSU’s average points per game in 2008, which ranked 116th in the nation

FUN FACT FROM WIKIPEDIA
Mullen, along with LSU offensive coordinator Gary Crowton and Oregon Coach Chip Kelly, are part of the so-called “New Hampshire mafia” as they all have strong connections to New Hampshire.

FUN NON-FOOTBALL FACT FROM WIKIPEDIA
Mississippi State (enrollment: 17,824), not Ole Miss, is the largest state university in the Magnolia State.

THE OFFENSE
This is where the Bulldogs struggled most in 2008 and it is where the focus will be in 2009. Tyson Lee will in all likelihood be the Bulldogs’ season-opening starter, but hot-shot freshman Tyler Russell lurks not far behind. If Russell can prove he’s adept in Mullen’s offense—something he calls a “multiple spread”—and Lee continues to struggle, it wouldn’t be out of the question to expect big playing time for Russell this season. Elsewhere, the Bulldogs are in trouble if Mullen chooses harsh punishment for running back Anthony Dixon, who was arrested for DUI last weekend. The team’s leading receiver from 2008, Brandon McRae, is back, but he sat out the entire spring with a broken leg. The rest of the Bulldogs receivers were either unproductive, unproven or both last season. The Bulldogs’ 2009 recruiting class included seven wide receivers. Undoubtedly, at least one will emerge as a regular player. It’s tough to imagine the Bulldogs being any worse on offense then they were last season, but there really aren’t any immediate reasons to believe they’ll be much better.

THE DEFENSE
Mullen, one of the youngest coaches in the SEC at 37, brought in an aged veteran, Carl Torbush, to lead his defense. He inherits a unit that is not nearly as down on itself on the offense. The Bulldogs’ defense certainly wasn’t to blame for MSU’s 4-8 finish in 2008. For reference, see Auburn 3, Mississippi State 2. Linebacker Jamar Chaney, who missed most of 2008 with a broken leg, returns for a fifth year after he was granted a medical redshirt. Junior college transfer Pernell McPhee is expected to play right away at defensive tackle, which should make Mississippi State tough up the middle. So, aside from some depth issues in the secondary, the defense should be just fine, which will put all the focus on Mississippi State’s new coach and the offense. Like last year, the defense will have to deal with excessive time on the field. How it handles it could determine just how ugly it will get later in the season.

OUR FAVORITE SOURCE FOR MSU INFORMATION
Jackson Clarion-Ledger beat writer Kyle Veazey has one heck of a blog. Click here and bookmark it.

AN IDEAL 2009
Mississippi State wins three of its four non-conference games, beats Auburn in the “Whose new coach is less interesting than Lane Kiffin?“ Bowl and follows that with a minor upset on the road at Vanderbilt, splashes in a major upset somewhere during the middle of the season before shocking the Rebels in the Egg Bowl. As unbelievably improbable as that sounds, it would still leave MSU at 7-5 and would likely be just good enough for a trip to the Liberty Bowl.

A DISASTROUS 2009
The Bulldogs get by on sheer talent before they are overwhelmed by Auburn. That begins a tailspin in which the Bulldogs don’t recover from until a road trip to Middle Tennessee State. After that, it’s all ugly losses and the Dan Mullen Era kicks off with a 2-10, last-place finish in the SEC West.

OUR FINAL PREDICTION
Mississippi State will finish last in the SEC West and will be the worst team in the SEC, but it won’t be a complete disaster. The Bulldogs will lose to Auburn but it will be close. That will be a theme throughout the season, as Mullen’s offense sputters and stammers all the way until the Egg Bowl. One or two teams will underestimate MSU and will pay the price. The Bulldogs go 3-9 (1-7 SEC).

(Photo Credit: AP)