12 to 1: No. 8 Auburn
By Andrew Gribble
Auburn University Beat Reporter
Published: July 30, 2009
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Our good friends at the New York Times (OK, we’re not friends. At best, we’re colleagues, but even that’s a stretch) have been plowing away all summer in their attempt to rank all 120 FBS programs heading into the 2009 season. You can read it all here.
We’re not that good, nor do we claim to be. So we’re going to stick to the SEC and not be nearly as thorough.
With that ringing endorsement out of the way, let’s get to cracking with the hometown team, Auburn. This series will run daily for the next eight days. Expect updates sometime around the lunch hour.
Also, while you’re here, check out our OTHER 12-to-1 feature, which is running in the fishwrap. We’re answering 12 questions about Auburn football heading into the season.
THE COACH
Gene Chizik (5-19 overall, 0-0 AU)—third year as a head coach, first at AU
LAST YEAR’S FINISH
5-7 overall, 2-6 SEC—missed out on the postseason bowl scene for the first time in nine years
SEC’S 2009 PROJECTION
Fifth in the West
THE SCHEDULE
Sept. 5 - LOUISIANA TECH
Sept. 12 - MISSISSIPPI STATE
Sept. 19 - WEST VIRGINIA
Sept. 26 - BALL STATE
Oct. 3 - Tennessee
Oct. 10 - Arkansas
Oct. 17 - KENTUCKY
Oct. 24 - Lsu
Oct. 31 - OLE MISS
Nov. 7 - FURMAN
Nov. 14 - Georgia
Nov. 27 - ALABAMA
RETURNING STARTERS
14 (seven offense, seven defense)
WHAT THE QUAD SAYS
“The offense remains an issue, though Auburn did hire one of the nation’s best coordinators to lead its attack. Gus Malzahn showed at Tulsa just how explosive – and, at times, unstoppable – his offense can be. Will Auburn be that good in 2009? No, of course not. This unit simply lacks the depth to run Malzahn’s system to the fullest, though I expect the Tigers will definitely be improved on this side of the ball in 2009. Really going out on a limb: Auburn could not possibly be much worse ... All told, I’m not picking the Tigers to win the SEC West, but I am predicting this team to win seven games and return to bowl play. As for the future of the Auburn program, Chizik was wise enough to surround himself with a strong coaching staff, so perhaps he won’t be as overmatched as his record at Iowa State would lead one to believe. Next season, 2010, is when you can truly judge if he has the Tigers headed back in the right direction.“
WHAT THEY SAY
“It’s an exciting time for me personally here at Auburn. It’s an exciting time for our fans. And it’s gonna be kind of a new beginning. We’re excited about our coaching staff. We feel like we’ve assembled one of the best coaching staffs in the country, certainly in this league, that’s what you have to do.
Obviously, this is my second go round at Auburn. The last time I was at Auburn, I was blessed to be a part of an undefeated football season in 2004. That’s the last memory I have of Auburn. It’s a great memory. We’d like to try to get it back to that point. We’re excited about doing that.“—Chizik
“The most important thing we lost is swagger (during last year) and I think we have it back. We got people hurt, people injured, and we didn’t finish the way we wanted, but we can’t harp on that, it was last year.“—defensive end Antonio Coleman
“He’s brought an aura, an enthusiasm, because he’s excited to be back at Auburn. He’s been preaching physicality, and hopefully brought more discipline to the team, things like taking your hats off in the building and pulling your pants up.“—tight end Tommy Trott, on Chizik
WHAT WE SAY
This year’s Auburn team remains a mystery largely because we haven’t been able to catch more than a few drills this past spring because of closed practices. That, in it and of itself, is one of many changes that’s taken place at Auburn since Tommy Tuberville’s resignation. Based on the team, alone, there’s really no reason to think Auburn will be any better than last year. But if you take into account all the turmoil and bloated expectations that this group went through, you’ve got to think they can eek out one more win and return to the postseason bowl scene. If anything, Chizik and the new hotshot coaching staff have insured that Auburn will be united while it battles through another year of mediocrity.
WHO’S ON THE MEDIA GUIDE?
You’ve got Chizik on the front jutting out at you because of a nifty design trick that a number of SEC schools have picked up on this year. Below him, you’ve got a snapshot of the student section and, in the background, Auburn is on its way to a loss against LSU. But hey, the stadium looks full. On the back, you’ve got a number of former Tigers who are now in the NFL, including Ronnie Brown, Takeo Spikes and Carlos Rogers.
STUMBLING BLOCKS
Auburn has not one, but two nasty patches in its 2009 schedule. After a four-game homestand to start the season, the Tigers embark on back-to-back road games at Tennessee and Arkansas. Barring a catastrophic change from preseason expectations, the Tigers will not be expected to win these. The end of the season is even harder, as the Tigers host Ole Miss on Halloween before their always tough November, which includes a road trip to Georgia and the Iron Bowl. These rough spots make September all the more important. All of Auburn’s first four games are winnable. It will have to win three of those if it wants to go bowling.
KEY GAME
Just as we said in another preview, Auburn vs. Mississippi State on Sept. 12 is a big, big game for both teams. Lose here, and you now have to spend the rest of the season proving that you aren’t the worst team in the SEC. It also wouldn’t provide much momentum heading into a non-conference rematch with West Virginia. Auburn will be favored in this game, but not my much. We also heard the Iron Bowl is a pretty big deal, too, so that came in a close second.
UPSET ALERT
Auburn’s still a much better team at Jordan-Hare Stadium than it is on the road, right? Well, we still think so, we’re eliminating any of Auburn’s four road games as upset possibilities. Instead, we’ll direct our focus toward Halloween, when the Tigers host Ole Miss. Auburn caught the Rebels during their hottest stretch of the season last year and arguably should have come away with the upset at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium. Yes, Ole Miss is better this year, but Auburn will have those recent memories firmly implanted. Also, we think dressing up as a Tiger for Halloween is a lot cooler-looking than dressing up as a Confederate soldier. We’re just glad we don’t have to see what The Grove would look like on that holiday.
THE NUMBER
7 - quarterbacks vying for the starting job when camp opens Wednesday
FUN FACT FROM WIKIPEDIA
Auburn made its first bowl appearance in 1936 at the Bacardi Bowl in Havana, Cuba.
FUN NON-FOOTBALL FACT FROM WIKIPEDIA
In the recent Princeton Review rankings, Auburn ranked 19th for “Most Religious Students”
THE OFFENSE
First, let’s get the ugly numbers out of the way. Auburn finished 104th in total offense, 111th in scoring offense and 119th (that’s dead last) in red zone offense. Seriously, it can’t get any worse. Players have seemed enamored by the speed of Malzahn’s offense and have said it no way resembles what Tony Franklin tried to install last season. Again, the key word there is “tried” because it was clear that not everyone was on the same page last year, which ultimately tops the list as the cause for Auburn’s demise. From all indications, that won’t be an issue this year. The quarterback situation, meanwhile, is a different story. Neither Kodi Burns nor Neil Caudle were able to seize the job this spring, which makes you wonder just how much better they’ll be in 2009. The wildcard is Chris Todd, who appears to be fully recovered from offseason shoulder surgery. Whoever wins the job simply has to play better than Burns and Todd did last season. The offensive line could be a strength, with four returning starters, but depth is a major concern. There are no playmakers at wide receiver, but freshmen DeAngelo Benton and Emory Blake could make an impact early. Freshman tight end Philip Lutzenkirchen is also an early-impact candidate. At tailback, Ben Tate could be the everyday guy, but players like Mario Fannin and Onterio McCalebb will also touch the ball frequently.
THE DEFENSE
The Tigers certainly didn’t struggle in this area last season and who knows just how good the unit could have been if it weren’t on the field so much. Defensive line coach Tracy Rocker would love to have Sen’Derrick Marks back for another year, but his front four just get by just fine without him. Coleman is a bona fide first-teamer and Michael Goggans is above average on the other side. The Tigers’ starting three at linebacker (Josh Bynes, Eltoro Freeman and Craig Stevens) should be strong, but there’s just about no one on the second-team. The secondary is banged up now, but should be back at full strength just in time for the season opener. Don’t expect many freshmen to make first-year impacts with this veteran group.
OUR FAVORITE SOURCE FOR AU INFORMATION
Here!
AN IDEAL 2009
Auburn sweeps through September before pulling a mini upset at Tennessee to get itself just one win from bowl eligibility before it even picks up a loss. The Tigers avenge last year’s near-upset with a major one over Ole Miss and wrap up the season with an Iron Bowl rout over the reeling Crimson Tide. That’s good for a 9-3 finish and a trip back to Dallas for the Cotton Bowl.
A DISASTROUS 2009
The Tiger split September and go 0-for-October. It doesn’t get much better in November, when Georgia stomps all over the Tigers—again—in black jerseys. The extra week off before the Iron Bowl doesn’t make a second straight blowout any less painful. Those who thought it couldn’t get any worse are simply stunned after Auburn’s 3-9 finish.
OUR FINAL PREDICTION
It really can’t go as poorly as it did in 2008. The unity will help, certainly, and the Tigers could possibly be better on defense. The schedule definitely isn’t favorable near the end, but a strong start could provide some needed momentum. Auburn doesn’t beat Alabama in the Iron Bowl, but a 6-6 finish would be viewed as a success for Chizik’s first year and that’s what he’ll get. Auburn goes 6-6 (3-5 SEC).
(Photo credit: AP)
