COTTRELL COLUMN: Surprise! These teams won’t

In any given year, it’s generally pretty easy to find a team in the preseason Top 25 that you know won’t be there when all is said and done.

Take last year, for instance. It didn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out that Florida State didn’t belong anywhere near the rankings, and by the end of the year the Seminoles weren’t.

In retrospect, the meltdowns of UCLA, Nebraska and Texas A&M shouldn’t have really surprised anyone, either.

This year, however, there’s no real obvious meltdown team on the horizon.

Sure, Clemson will probably find a way to blow its golden opportunity, but it’ll probably come in a way none of us have even thought of yet.

And since Michigan is the only other team currently ranked that I can’t see finishing there — or, even if the Wolverines do wind up fishing in the Top 25, actually belonging there — I figured I’d look at a few teams outside the Top 25 that have been getting a lot of love, either from preseason prognosticators or from the people I talk to on a regular basis.

Mississippi State
It seems everyone here in the office and many of my friends believe State can potentially compete for the SEC West this year. I don’t see it.

The Bulldogs were a great story last year, and they don’t have a bad football team, but they’re still bringing a knife to a gunfight in most SEC games.

With the three Western Division teams that they beat last year — Alabama, Auburn and Ole Miss — looking a lot better this year, it’s going to be tough for the Bulldogs to top last year’s regular season total of seven wins.

Luckily for them, they’ve caught a few scheduling breaks and should be able to match last year’s win total.

Iowa
The coaches are apparently hip to the Hawkeyes’ act — they didn’t receive a single vote in the USA Today Preseason Top 25 — but numerous Internet sites were playing up Iowa’s chances of making a run in the Big Ten this year.

There’s certainly reason to think they could, with an experienced team and no Michigan or Ohio State on the schedule.

Since winning 10 games three years in a row from 2002-2004, the Hawkeyes have been a fountain of disappointment.

Just look at some of the losses from 2005-2007: Iowa State, Northwestern and Indiana (all twice), Minnesota and Western Michigan.

So if the last three seasons have taught us anything, we should know that Hawkeye coach Kirk Ferentz seems to have completely lost his grip, which is a shame since at one point he seemed to be one of the brighter coaches out there.

The Hawkeyes do have 13 returning starters, but considering how inconsistent they’ve been there’s no guarantee of success.

Pittsburgh
My, what one good win can do for you.

The Panthers went from laughingstock to “team on the rise” after their upset win over West Virginia to close out last season.

Head coach Dave Wannstedt has recruited well, and there’s plenty of talent to go around at Pitt.

But, as fans of the Chicago Bears and Miami Dolphins will tell you, talent doesn’t mean a whole lot when Wannstedt is your coach.

The Panthers defense could be pretty stout, and the offense is sure to score some points. But until Pitt proves it can win with some regularity under Wannstedt, I can’t take the Panthers seriously.

Next Week
To balance things out, we take a look at teams who could surprise in 2008.

Tim Cottrell is sports designer of the Opelika-Auburn News. He will write a weekly column on college football during the season. You can also read him on the O-A Sports Blog at oanow.com. He can be reached at 737-2511 or .